#9 National Polls are Irrelevant

On November 8, 2007

Hello Everyone,

First of all, please tune in this Sunday morning (November 11) to see Barack on Meet the Press. On NBC. At 9:30am Central Time; please check your local listings.

Yesterday, I attended Obama National and Illinois Finance Committee meetings at campaign headquarters. Michelle Obama, among others, met with our group.

The conventional wisdom is that the game is over. Because that’s what the national polls say. I think that’s dead wrong. I’m feeling really good about where our campaign stands right now. And let me tell you why.

National polls are principally a reflection of name recognition at this point in the cycle. (It is obvious, who has the advantage there.) But the actual nominating process is a sequential process, with a focus on the early states. Iowa comes first — on January 3. The Iowa polls say it’s a dead heat between Barack and Hillary.

And speaking of national polls, a week before the last Iowa caucuses in 2004, John Kerry stood at 8% in the national polls. The “experts” expected him to drop out of the race (see attachment). And a few days later, he won Iowa… and then New Hampshire… and then the nomination.

Remember, because of folks like us, the Obama campaign has raised more money for the primaries than any other campaign, despite Hillary’s name recognition and slightly better showing in the last quarter. So we will have great staying power.

Nonetheless, you will still need more.

The cost of campaigning in the nearly 2 dozen states with February 5th primaries and caucuses will be enormous. So, please think about whether you can give… or give more. I will be calling many of you, but also would appreciate those who volunteer more support. And, thank you for all of your support so far.

Surprisingly, there are just 45 days to go before the holidays, when things will quiet down until the January 3rd Iowa caucuses.

I will send along some additional observations in the next few days.

As always, please pass it along.

Chuck

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