#26 Capitulation

On May 7, 2008

Hello Everyone,

Last night was even better than I had hoped for. He is now the Democratic nominee.

Barack’s 14 point win in North Carolina was bigger than I’d expected. And his 2 point loss in Indiana was smaller than I’d expected. Contrary to the impression left by the preelection media coverage, North Carolina is larger than Indiana (10th largest vs. 15th) and had nearly 40% more delegates to award.

As a result, Sen. Clinton has run out of rope.

We have said from the beginning that this process is all about Pledged (or Elected) Delegates. Only 6 contests, with a total of 217 delegates, remain. Sen. Clinton would have to win 94% of those Pledged Delegates to achieve a majority of elected delegates. Obviously, that won’t happen.

There has been an over-abundance of chatter claiming “the Super (or Appointed) Delegates will decide the outcome.” Well, 2/3 of the 795 Super Delegates have already declared their intentions. Only 1/3, or 260, of them now remain undeclared.

As a result, there are 477 total delegates (both Pledged and Super) that remain in play. Sen. Clinton now needs to win 68% of them to achieve a majority of all delegates. That won’t happen either.

This “baseball” game is over. Senator Clinton may try to extend it by two “innings,” contrary to the rules she originally agreed to. I doubt that will happen.

The media has started to capitulate, even though that is not in its self-interest. The only questions that remain for me are: Will Sen. Clinton follow Gov. Huckabee’s lead, and stay in the game for awhile, but play nice? Or, will she choose to exit with less grace? Time will tell.

In the meantime, keep the numbers 94% and 68% in your heads.

Yes, we can!

Please pass it on.


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