Hello Everyone,

Senator Clinton needed to win in Pennsylvania by 32 points (66%-34%), but she didn’t come close. By winning the popular vote by only 10 points (55%-45%), she failed to dent Barack’s unassailable lead in elected delegates, the so-called Pledged Delegates.

As I anticipated in earlier Obamagrams, the incline of the huge hill that she must climb has just gotten steeper. The harsh reality is that she lost the race for Pledged Delegates weeks ago and can’t recover.

I’m amazed that so few commentators do the math or talk intelligently about it.

Here’s how it works (you can follow along in the attachment.) Before Pennsylvania, she trailed Barack by 171 Pledged Delegates. Therefore, she needed to win 66% of all of the then remaining 569 Pledged Delegates to have won half of all Pledged Delegates by the end of the primaries.

Since she fell so far short of that 66% mark in Pennsylvania, the bar has now been raised even higher. She has to win 71% of the now remaining 411 Pledged Delegates. She has never won that much of the popular vote in any state – including Arkansas.

It may get even worse for her in two weeks. There are more delegates (187) available in the combination of North Carolina and Indiana then there were in Pennsylvania (158). Even if she gets 3 of Guam’s 4 delegates on April 26 and, on May 6, wins Indiana by as much as 10 points and loses North Carolina by only 10 points, she will then hit the wall. (Yesterday, 29 North Carolina state legislators endorsed Barack.) She would need to win 196 of the 220 delegates available in the 6 then remaining contests in May and early June. That is, she would need to win 89% of those delegates. I don’t think so.

Therefore, the only way she can win the nomination is to convince the Super Delegates to ignore the collective will of the voters. I don’t think they dare do that.

One final note. As you’ve probably heard, the Clinton campaign is once again out of cash. Based on the latest available reports, its debts now exceed its cash on hand. Meanwhile, Barack is reported to have $41 million of net cash on hand. More reason to have faith in both Barack’s management acumen and broad-based, grass roots appeal.

So, keep in mind that Senator Clinton needs to win 71% of the vote (a 42 point margin) in each of the remaining nine contests. Whenever she fails to do that, in any contest, the hill gets even steeper.

Please pass it along.

Chuck

adobe pdf file Click here to download this article in PDF format.

 

adobe pdf file Attachment: Delegate Math

 

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