Hello Everyone,

In Chapter #1 on “Baseball”, I urged you to remember the number 167.

That’s the size of Barack’s lead in Pledged Delegates.

There is one other number to remember as everyone obsesses over Pennsylvania: 66%.

That is the percentage of all the remaining Pledged Delegates that Sen. Clinton must win in order to TIE Barack by the end of the process. An almost impossible task.

So, for Sen. Clinton to “win” Pennsylvania, she must get 66% of its Pledged Delegates. A narrower popular vote victory is meaningless.

But, let’s start at the beginning. There have been erroneous perceptions about the state of the Democratic nominating process throughout. Here are just a few facts that may surprise you.

  • Barack has always led in Pledged Delegates, starting with Iowa. Sen. Clinton has trailed from day one; she has not led for even one day.
  • Barack won more delegates on Super Tuesday than she did, and Barack didn’t lose in New Hampshire, it was a tie.
  • as I’ve reminded us before, Barack won Texas.

The Rules

Remember that before this “baseball game” began, all of the “teams” agreed to a set of “rules” – just like in any game.

In this case, all sides agreed they would play to “score runs” (i.e., win Pledged Delegates) proportionately from a fixed and predetermined number available. Delegates were the only metric.

It was also agreed that a much smaller number of “unearned runs” could be awarded by the “owners” (Super Delegates) if they needed to intervene because something was awry – like one team was violating the rules.

All agreed to play 54 “innings” (states), with 2 innings (MI and FL) played as exhibitions only.

As a result, the total number of available runs – “earned” runs – (3,254 Pledged Delegates) plus “unearned runs” (795 Super Delegates) would be 4,049. In order to win, one team would have to score 2,025 runs, or slightly over half.

That number – 2,025 – is probably very familiar to most of you by now. That in itself is a telling number – because it has excluded, from the day the game began, the delegates from Michigan and Florida that could have been in play had those states abided by the rules. They didn’t. So, 2025 is the number.

Pledged Delegates Count

A “Delegate Count” table is included as an attachment. It contains a rich trove of data that illuminate the results of this nominating process. These are Obama campaign numbers; they differ only slightly from other sources. The table shows Barack with a 167 delegate lead. RealClearPolitics.com also puts his lead at 167, while CNN has him leading by 171.

The Delegate Count table shows why Barack is so far ahead and why Sen. Clinton has almost no chance of catching up.

I have also included as a second attachment a list of the remaining states, their dates and Pledge Delegate totals.

A careful examination of it will also show why the reporting of the process has been so misleading.

New Hampshire. Barack didn’t lose in New Hampshire, as reported. He tied. He and Sen. Clinton each got 9 delegates.

Nevada. Barack didn’t lose in Nevada, as reported. He won. He got 13 delegates to Sen. Clinton’s 12. So, Barack won 3 and tied 1 of the 4 “early states.”

Super Tuesday (Feb. 5). This was supposed to be Sen. Clinton’s big opportunity to end the game by the “slaughter rule.” She bet big on it. In simultaneous contests in 22 states, how could Barack Obama possibly overcome the namerecognition that the Clinton’s had built up over 15 years? But, Barack won again. I’ll bet you didn’t know that; I didn’t until I did the numbers. He earned 848 delegates to Sen. Clinton’s 833. Even more interesting, Barack “dominated” (my definition: got 60% of more of the delegates) in 9 of the 22 Super Tuesday states, while Sen. Clinton dominated in only 4, including American Samoa, getting 2 of its 3 delegates.

The Rest of February. Much has been reported about Barack winning 11 straight innings during the rest of February following Super Tuesday. The simple-minded have focused on winning discreet innings of a baseball game, which is irrelevant. In the process, they missed the real story – Barack dominated in 10 of those 11 innings, and narrowly missed dominating in the 11th, Wisconsin, winning 57% of its delegates. So he opened a big lead.

The Second “Super Tuesday” (March 4). Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. For the first time, Sen. Clinton “won” a phase of the campaign, but by the thinnest of margins, 188 to 182.

Texas. Barack didn’t lose Texas. He won. He got 99 delegates to Sen. Clinton’s 94.

The Current Margin. After 44 innings, Barack leads in Pledged Delegates, 1415 to 1251, for a margin of 167.

Barack’s Virtually Insurmountable Lead. 44 of the 54 “innings” have now been played. There are only 569 Pledged Delegates available in the remaining 10 innings. Sen. Clinton would have to win over 66% of all theses delegates to draw even with Barack. But, she has reached the 66% mark only 1 time in the 44 previous “innings” – in Arkansas where she served as first lady for a long time.

Pennsylvania. It is critical for everyone to understand that “winning” the next inning in Pennsylvania requires that Sen. Clinton get over 66% of its Pledged Delegates. Unlikely as it is, even a popular vote total of 60%, for instance, would represent a loss for Sen. Clinton. The mountain she would have to climb in the then remaining 9 states would get even steeper – almost 69%. If she misses that mark in the next inning, the slope gets even steeper.

So, don’t let anyone tell you a popular vote total of anything less than 66% represents a “win” for Sen. Clinton in Pennsylvania. It won’t.

Super Delegates. We’ll talk more about Super Delegates at a late date.

For now, there is only one thing to be alert to on this score. If the Super Delegates ultimately decide to ignore Barack’s Pledged Delegate lead and hand the nomination to Sen. Clinton, we must all be crystal clear about what happened. They will have ignored the will of their own voters. It’s as simple as that.

No one should be confused, or diverted, by the endless babble about exit polls, big states, vague questions about “electability” or whatever. It’s all smoke. If this small handful of appointed party insiders decides to ignore the long and elaborate process the party
established to elect Pledged Delegates – the only election metric that was established at the beginning – after 16 months and over $400 million – then we should all be clear-eyed about what they have decided to do. They will have ignored the voters.

Please pass it on.

Chuck

adobe pdf file Click here to download this article in PDF format.

 

adobe pdf file Attachment: Delegate Count

 

adobe pdf file Attachment: Remaining Innings

 

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