Hello Everyone,

On this morning after a milestone – when Barack went over the top in delegates and rightfully claimed the Democratic presidential nomination — it seems fitting to offer a brief coda.

It feels really good that the world now knows what I have suspected for 2 years and known for 3 ½ months – that Barack would win the nomination.

Using my now well-worn baseball metaphor, on March 18, I wrote to many of you: “Barack’s lead in Pledged Delegates is virtually insurmountable at 167. This lead is the most important single factor to focus on. Sen. Clinton would have to score more than 66% of the available runs in each of the remaining 9 innings [of this 54 inning game] to catch Barack in Pledged Delegates. [She ultimately got there in only 2 of the 9.] Even if the owners [Super Delegates] decide to replay the two exhibition innings (MI and FL), she would have to score over 60% of the runs in each of the then remaining 11 innings. She has reached the 60% mark [in Pledged Delegates] only 4 times [and only 2 times in popular vote] in the 45 innings played so far. Barack has reached that mark 21 times – in many cases exceeding it by wide margins. That’s why his lead is so large. Forget who “wins” Pennsylvania or any other inning. The only thing that matters is Barack’s lead, and whether it increases or decreases and by how many runs. It is highly unlikely that Sen. Clinton can overcome Barack’s big lead. So, that’s why she is trying to change the rules.”

Barack has won the nomination because his unique and extraordinary combination of personal qualities matches so well the needs and tenor of the times. He also won because he knew the rules of this “baseball” game. That it was 54 innings long and that the only thing that mattered was the cumulative number of runs scored.

The real — and as yet untold – story of this campaign is this. From day one, Barack has never trailed in Pledged Delegates. He planned to play all the innings, not just the early ones. And, here’s the deeper insight – he dominated so many innings in the early and middle parts of the game that his opponent simply couldn’t catch up in the later ones.

Much attention has been paid to the handful of “blowouts” Sen. Clinton recorded in the waning innings – most notably in West Virginia. (Blowouts, by my definition, are popular vote wins by 20 points or more.) Sen. Clinton had 5 such wins, but 3 were in the last 6 innings. But, to my knowledge, no one noticed, much less reported on, the 21 blowout innings that Barack won, swamping her 5. Starting in South Carolina, on January 26. Continuing on Super Tuesday (Feb. 5), when Sen. Clinton counted on delivering the much-anticipated knockout. It didn’t happen. Not only did Barack win more Pledged Delegates than she did that day, he recorded 8 blowouts to her 2.

Then, as everyone knows, Barack won the next 11 innings in a row. What no one noticed was that he won more than 60% of the delegates in 10 of those 11 contests and won the popular vote by more than 20 points (a blowout) in 8 of those 11 innings.

So, despite all the media blabber, this game was over on Feb. 19 – about 3 ½ months ago. Before Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, much less tiny West Virginia.

It was only after Barack’s 11th straight winning inning that the other side woke up to their fate and started to argue that the rules of the game should be changed. That big states or primary not caucus states or hard working uneducated white male voters should somehow
count rather than what the game was all about – delegates.

Their last gasp was the “popular vote” argument. Suffice it to say, there is no plausible argument for counting Michigan’s and Florida’s popular votes, even though Barack graciously engineered a compromise on their delegates. Nor should certain caucus states be excluded. Playing by the rules, Barack won the popular vote. No matter how many times and how loudly the other side asserts otherwise. And, as we just witnessed, it doesn’t matter. It has never mattered. Remember the title of my January 21st Obamagram, “Delegates Matter,” in which I pointed out that delegates were the sole metric in this nominating process.

It is a day to savor – and one of those singular days that many of us will long remember.

But, we must not inhale too much champagne in the clubhouse. This was only the League Championship Series.

Now, it’s on to the World Series. More on that next time.

For those of you who have been believers, thank you for your unflagging support. For those as yet unconverted, we hope you will now join our movement.

Please pass it on, as always.

Chuck

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